Managerial Perceptions of Macroeconomic Signals and International Guest Performance in Lake Toba Hotels: Implications for Tourism Destination Development

Dina Rosari; Bejo Mulyadi; Ngatemin; Julianto; Dewi Yanti; Liyushiana; Emrizal

doi:10.62794/je3s.v7i5.510

Authors

Dina Rosari Hotel Management Study Program, Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia
Bejo Mulyadi Hotel Management Study Program (D4), Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia
Ngatemin Applied Master’s Program in Tourism Planning and Development, Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia
Julianto Hotel Management Study Program (D4), Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia
Dewi Yanti Tourism Destination Study Program (D4), Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia
Liyushiana Tourism Destination Study Program (D4), Politeknik Pariwisata Medan
Emrizal Applied Master’s Program in Tourism Planning and Development, Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62794/je3s.v7i5.510

Keywords:

Destination Development, Exchange-Rate Conditions, International Guest Performance, Lake Toba, Managerial Perceptions

Abstract

This study examines how Lake Toba hotel managers interpret macroeconomic signals and how these perceptions relate to perceived international guest performance. A cross-sectional survey produced 67 usable hotel-level questionnaires, each completed by a manager or supervisor. Partial least squares structural equation modeling with 5,000 bootstrap subsamples was used to assess six direct paths and two specific indirect paths. Favorable exchange-rate conditions (β = 0.317), price competitiveness (β = 0.354), and destination delivery and attractiveness (β = 0.296) were positively associated with perceived international guest performance. Perceived inflationary pressure (β = −0.294), exchange-rate volatility (β = −0.183), and economic pressure (β = −0.268) showed negative associations. The indirect effects through economic pressure (β = −0.109) and price competitiveness (β = 0.128) were significant; the model explained 68.3% of outcome variance. The findings distinguish an internal operating-pressure pathway from a market-facing price-competitiveness pathway. All measures reflect managerial assessments rather than independently verified hotel or macroeconomic records. Destination-development implications are interpretive, not directly tested effects.

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